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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2003-01
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A Preliminary Report of the Model Prediction on the Forthcoming Winter and Spring Dust Climate over China

Wang Huijun, Lang Xianmei, Zhou Guangqing, and Kang Dujuan (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)  
This paper reports the first GCM-based prediction experiment results on the winter climate and spring dust climate several months ahead of the time. The ensemble prediction shows that the forthcoming winter will have normal precipitation in the North and slightly more precipitation in the South, and normal temperature in the countrywide. Therefore, it will not be the warm winter in China. In comparison, the North Eurasia will have a warm winter. Precipitation will be normal in Northwest, Central North, and Northeast in the next spring, and other parts will have a little more precipitation. The temperature will be normal in most areas. In accordance, North China will face normal, instead of stronger, dust storm occurrence. However, due to the recent enhancement tendency, strong dust storm occurrence will be still possible.
【Fund】: 国家杰出青年基金项目 4 0 1 2 5 0 1 4;; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX2 -2 0 3;; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1 9980 4 0 90 5共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P427.2
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