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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2005-01
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Preliminary Research on the Inner-Atmosphere-Originated Seasonal Climate Predictability

WANG Hui-JunNansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmopsheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029  
This is a very preliminary work on detection of seasonal climate predictability arising from the internal atmosphere. Generally speaking, seasonal climate predictability is mostly determined by the external forcing that has larger scale of temporal variation, namely, the sea surface temperature, snow cover, soil wetness, and so on. Based on analyzing the persistence of monthly mean wind anomalies and the East Asian monsoon-related global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, the inner-atmosphere-originated seasonal climate predictability is discussed. The results show that the wind anomalies in spring in many key regions like upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the tropics, which is closely related to the East Asian monsoon, may persist for up to 4 to 5 months. Thus, climate predictability may be partly originated by the internal processes of the atmosphere.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目KZCX3 SW 2 2 1 ;; 国家自然科学基金项目 40 4 750 37和 40 2 2 1 50 3
【CateGory Index】: P46
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