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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2009-01
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Variation and Projection of Drought and Wet Conditions in Xinjiang

JIANG Dabang1,SU Mingfeng1,3,WEI Rongqing2,and LIU Bao21 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000292 Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau,rümqi 8300023 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049  
Based on the continuous observation data at the 90 meteorological sites in Xinjiang,a self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index(PDSI) is firstly used to investigate the annual and seasonal variation of drought and wet conditions in the region during 1961-2003.During the concerned period,Xinjiang is characterized by normal climate condition,and both annual and seasonal mean climates are prone to become wetter as a whole.Qualitative analysis reveals that the recorded surface warming tends to induce drought,whereas increased precipitation is favorable for wetness.Under the SRES A2 emission scenario for atmospheric greenhouse gasses and aerosols,projected surface warming tends to induce drought,whereas increased precipitation tends to induce wetness in the 2090s.Taking into account the above two factors together,the PDSI indicates that drought and wet conditions in Xinjiang alter to some extent in the 2090s.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目KZCX3-SW-229、KZCX2-YW-205;; 国家科技支撑计划项目课题2007BAC03A01;; 国家自然科学基金资助项目40505017
【CateGory Index】: P463.1
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