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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2015-01
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A Specific Stratospheric Precursory Signal for the Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

SHI Ning;BUEH Cholaw;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;  
On the basis of daily NCEP/NCAR data sets, this study investigates a stratospheric circulation precursor for the extensive and persistent extreme cold events(EPECEs) in China. Results show that 17 out of 52 EPECEs are characterized by a specific stratospheric circulation precursor. The precursor exhibits itself clearly in two aspects.(1) Strong positive geopotential height anomalies occur around the Barents Sea in the lower stratosphere(100 h Pa) 10 days prior to the occurrence of the EPECE.(2) In relation to the eastward movement of the positive height anomalies, the zonal wind over the northwest of Lake Baikal is weakened significantly at 200 h Pa about 5 days before the occurrence of an EPECE. According to these stratospheric precursor circulation features, two initial assessment conditions are proposed. To test prediction accuracy, the two assessment conditions are applied to the daily low-frequency data of all winter seasons(November to March) from 1949 to 2009. Results show that our two proposed assessment conditions, at least to some extent, can enable the prediction of the occurrence date of an EPECE. Regarding the physical mechanism of the influence of the stratospheric circulation precursor on the EPECE, potential vorticity(PV) inversion analysis shows that the mid and lower stratospheric PV anomalies around the Barents Sea can induce the geopotential height anomalies at the upper and midtroposphere. In particular, 25% of the real amplitude of the latter originates from the influence of former.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划项目2009BAC51B02;; 国家自然科学基金项目41375064;41105042;; 公益性行业科研专项GYHY201406022;; 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);; 江苏省“青蓝工程”创新团队项目
【CateGory Index】: P423;P421.32
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