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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2017-01
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A Blending Method for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast and Its Application to Beijing Extreme Precipitation Event on July 21, 2012

ZHUANG Xiaoran;MIN Jingzhong;WANG Shizhang;ZHOU Kai;Cai Yuanchen;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;  
In order to overcome the under-dispersive problem in the storm-scale ensemble forecast system(SSEFs), a new blending method to generate initial perturbation is designed and tested for the WRF SSEFs. This new scheme is based on the combination of the ETKF(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) and the Barnes filter for scale decomposition. This scheme is applied to the simulation of the Beijing extreme precipitation event on July 21, 2012 and the neighborhood methods is employed to verify the performance of this new scheme. Results indicate that the blending method can effectively solve the scale mismatch problem in the lateral boundary in storm-scale ensemble prediction system, in which ETKF80(with wavelength scale of 180 km) and Down(Dynamical downscaling) show the best overall performance. The Dispersion Fractions Skill Score(DFSS) shows that the ETKF has a larger spread in small scales during the period of warm area precipitation while Down produces a larger spread at large scales during period of frontal precipitation. The experiments with initial perturbations generated by the blending method take advantage of both the ETKF and Down. The ETKF180(with wavelength scale of 180 km) generates the most reasonable ensemble spreads. Results also indicate that in order to get better ensemble spread in SSEFs, not only the lateral scale mismatch but also some other elements(such as the interaction between different scales of initial perturbation) should be considered. The blending method ETKF180 also improves the precipitation probability forecast.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目41430427、40975068~~
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 ZHUANG Xiaoran;MIN Jingzhong;CAI Yuanchen;ZHU Haonan;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST;;Convective-scale ensemble prediction experiments under different large-scale forcing with consideration of uncertainties in initial and lateral boundary condition[J];气象学报;2016-02
2 ZHU Kefeng;YANG Yi;Ming XUE;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University;Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms,University of Oklahoma;College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University;;Percentile-based Neighborhood Precipitation Verification and Its Application to a Landfalling Tropical Storm Case with Radar Data Assimilation[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2015-11
3 ZHANG Hanbin;CHEN Jing;ZHI Xiefei;WANG Yi;WANG Yanan;College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Numerical Weather Prediction Center,China Meteorological Administration;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska Lincoln;Center of Meteorological Service of Zhejiang;;Study on Multi-Scale Blending Initial Condition Perturbations for a Regional Ensemble Prediction System[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2015-08
4 LI Jun;DU Jun;LIU Yu;Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA;National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NOAA;;A comparison of initial condition-,multi-physics-and stochastic physics-based ensembles in predicting Beijing “7.21” excessive storm rain event[J];气象学报;2015-01
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 SUN Jing;CHENG Guangguang;National Meteorological Center;Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration;;Influence of Thermal and Dynamical Conditions over Beijing City Area on Strength of Down-to-Hill Thunderstorms[J];高原气象;2017-01
2 YANG Dejiang;MA Ning;WEI Yinghua;Tianjin Climate Center;Tianjin Meteorology Observatory;;Climatic Characteristics of Rainstorms and Circulation Types in Haihe River Basin[J];水文;2017-01
3 LI Jun;DU Jun;LIU Yu;XU Jianyu;Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain/CMA;National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;;Similarities and differences in the evolution of ensemble spread using various ensemble perturbation methods including topography perturbation[J];气象学报;2017-01
4 ZHUANG Xiaoran;MIN Jingzhong;WANG Shizhang;ZHOU Kai;Cai Yuanchen;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;;A Blending Method for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast and Its Application to Beijing Extreme Precipitation Event on July 21, 2012[J];大气科学;2017-01
5 WANG Baojian;KONG Xiangwei;FU Zhao;HUANG Yuxia;Center of Lanzhou Meteorological Observatory;;Analysis on Mesoscale Characteristics of a Rainstorm Process in Southeastern Gansu[J];高原气象;2016-06
6 CHEN Boyu;GUO Yunqian;DAI Kan;QIAN Qifeng;National Meteorological Centre;;Research for the Ensemble Member Optimization Correction Technique on Typhoon Rainstorm Forecast and Its Application Experiment[J];气象;2016-12
7 YUAN Youlin;YANG Bihua;ZHOU Hong;KANG Xiaoping;CHEN Guang;ZHAO Jun;Unit of 63610 of the Chinese People's Liberation Army;Unit of 61243 of the Chinese People's Liberation Army;;Simulation of Different Ensemble Forecast Schemes on a Large Area Heavy Rainfall by WRF Model[J];干旱气象;2016-06
8 ZHUANG Xiaoran;MIN Jinzhong;CAI Yuanchen;FENG Jiawei;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education / School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;;Optimal design of lateral boundary condition perturbation method in storm-scale ensemble forecast: A case study[J];气象科学;2017-01
9 WU Yuzhen;FENG Zhizhou;WANG Dagang;Department of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University;;Precipitation forecasting in flood season over the Dongjiang Basin using Bayesian model averaging and standardized anomaly[J];中山大学学报(自然科学版);2016-06
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
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2 Du Jun;Li Jun;National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA);Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration;;Application of Ensemble Methodology to Heavy-Rain Research and Prediction[J];气象科技进展;2014-05
3 ZHANG Hanbin;CHEN Jing;ZHI Xiefei;LI Yinglin;SUN Yun;College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing Univesity of Information Science and Technology;Numerical Weather Prediction Centre of CMA;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST;Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province;;Study on the Application of GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System[J];气象;2014-09
4 DU Jun;Richard H.GRUMM;DENG Guo;National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA);National Weather Service at Pennsylvania State,State College;National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration;;Ensemble Anomaly Forecasting Approach to Predicting Extreme Weather Demonstrated by Extremely Heavy Rain Event in Beijing[J];大气科学;2014-04
5 ZHANG Han-bin;CHEN Jing;ZHI Xie-fei;LONG Ke-ji;WANG Ya-nan;School of Atmospheric Sciences,NUIST;Center of Numerical Weather Prediction of CMA;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(NUIST),Ministry of Education;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory;Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center;;Design and comparison of perturbation schemes for GRAPES_Meso based ensemble forecast[J];大气科学学报;2014-03
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8 DU Jun;LI Jun;YU Rucong;CUI Chunguang;National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),National Oceanic and Atmosphereic Administration (NOAA);Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA);Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA;;Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation[J];Acta Oceanologica Sinica;2014-01
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10 ZHAO Yangyang;ZHANG Qinghong;DU Yu;JIANG Man;ZHANG Jiping;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University;Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology;;Objective analysis of the extreme of circulation patterns during the 21 July 2012 torrential rain event in Beijing[J];气象学报;2013-05
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