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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2018-03
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Application of Particle Filter Assimilation in the Target Observation for El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation

DUAN Wansuo;FENG Fan;HOU Meiyi;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;College of Earth Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Joint Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Chengdu University of Information Technology;College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;  
Considering the limitation of particle filter–target observation approach, the present study proposes a new target observation approach that can overcome this limitation. This new approach is then applied to the study of the predictability of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation and reveals the sensitive areas for targeting observation associated with eastern-and central-Pacific El Ni?o events. By assimilating the target observations, the prediction uncertainties for the two types of El Ni?o events are significantly reduced. This result confirms that the sensitive areas revealed by the new approach, compared with other areas, can play a much more important role in improving the El Ni?o forecast skill.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目41525017;41690124;; “全球变化与海气相互作用”专项GASI-IPOVAI-06;; 成都信息工程大学引进人才科研启动项目KYTZ201736~~
【CateGory Index】: P412;P45
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