Temporal-spatial Variation of Climate Factors in Africa under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario 4.5
LIU Yujie;DAI Junhu;CHEN Pengfei;SHAO Quanqin;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
Impacts of climate change and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. Vast research results indicated that agricultural production and environment in Africa have been affected a lot by increased temperature and decreased precipitation caused by climate change. This study used the output of regional climate model Had GEM2 under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario 4.5(RCP 4.5) to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of major climate factors including precipitation,solar radiation, annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Our results indicated that the variation of the five climate variables at different periods showed obvious regional differences.(1) Compared with the base period of 1970- 1999, precipitation increased during the three future periods and reached peak value in 2080 s. The area of precipitation increase is mainly located in the latitude of 20 degrees, such as Niger, Chad, Libya, etc. and the maximum increase is around 4.5%.(2) The area of increased solar radiation is mainly located in north and south ends of Africa continents, especially in high altitude area, i.e. Atlas mountain and Plus plateau and the maximum increase is 0.04%.(3) Over the next 90 years, the annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature are all increasing and reach the maximum value by 2080 s,increasing 5 ℃,4.3 ℃,5.1 ℃ at 2020 s, 2050 s, 2080 s, respectively. The temperature is significantly increased compared with the base period of 1970-1999, but increased less in the coastal area due to the cold current. The high increase of temperature might play negative role in agriculture production and regional security.
【Fund】： 国家自然科学基金项目(41301091、41671037);; 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602402);; 中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(2016049)
【CateGory Index】： P467
【CateGory Index】： P467