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《Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research》 2016-06
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Assessment of the causative probability of the largest potential earthquake in Mohe north potential source zone

Kang Jian;Wang Zhuo;Huang Yan;Liu Shuang;Sun Haifeng;Miu Xiangcai;Earthquake Administration of Heilongjiang Province;Earthquake Administration of Daqing City;  
An MS 6.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the north of Mohe County, border between China and Russia, on October 14, 2011. To disclose the impact of this earthquake on the surrounding region, the potential seismic source zone was redevised and its spatial distribution function was recounted. A new predicted result was given by using the seismic risk probability analysis method and the G—R relationship. The new result shows that, in the next 100 years, the earthquake occurrence probability of MS 7.0, in the north of Mohe County, is 0.073 and the recurrence period is 1 316.
【Key Words】: northern Da Hinggan Mountains potential source zone G—R relationship causative probability recurrence period
【Fund】: 黑龙江省地震局一般性科研课题项目(编号:201401);; 中国地震局地震行业科研专项(编号:1521044025)
【CateGory Index】: P315
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