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《Environmental Science & Technology》 2012-05
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Surface Water Quality Assessment in Period 2000-2009 and Forecasting on Changing Tendency of Pollution in Daye Lake

LU Zhen1,LI Ye1,MA Xiao1,ZHANG Ya-dong2,HUANG Bo-long3,ZHANG Meng1,ZHU Li1,LIU Cheng1(1.School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China; 2.Daye Municipal Envionment Protection Bureau,Daye 435100,China; 3.Daye Municipal Envionment Monitoring Centre,Daye 435100,China)  
Water quality identification index was adopted to assess the surface water quality of Daye Lake based on monitoring data of three main water bodies of the Lake during 2000-2009.Grey forecasting mathematical model was established by application of grey systems theory,with accuracy and validity of the model confirmed by the observed monitoring data.The model was applied to forecast the changing tendency of water quality of the Lake in the next five years.Results indicated the concentration of the key pollutants including COD,BOD5,NH3-N and TP all exceed the limit of water quality standard,with water quality of Sanliqi Lake worse than Grade V in 2004,2005 and 2008.COD,BOD5,NH3-N and TP showed an increasing trend basically and only the concentration of TP,BOD5 in Sanliqi Lake and NH3-N concentration in Outer Lake showed a little decreasing trend.Results of forecasting would serve as the reference for the protection of water quality in local lakes.
【Fund】: 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项子专题(2009ZX07104-001);; 武汉市科技攻关计划项目(201060723315)
【CateGory Index】: X824
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