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《Environmental Science & Technology》 2013-02
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Iron and Steel Material Flow Metabolism in China Automobile Industry

HUANG Ning-ning 1,CHEN Ding-jiang 1*,WANG Tao 2,HU Shan-ying 1(1.Centre for Industrial Ecology,Department of Chemical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China;2.General Engineering Research and Reasonable,Ritsumeikan University)  
As the booming of automobile industry in China,the consumption of steel is growing rapidly.The study of iron and steel material flow metabolism in China automobile industry is of great significance to the development of resource recycling industry and remanufacturing industry.The system dynamics model and empirical model were integrated,and the change trend of passenger cars in use per 1 000 people in the world's main automobile production counties was studied by using Gompertz model,and coefficient from the model was used as an important reference in the study of China case.The system dynamic model of steel metabolism was used for analysis of critical flows and stocks of vehicle products and those of iron and steel materials.Scenario analysis was presented by setting different cars in use and life distribution parameter in the system dynamic model,in which the change trends of scraped automobile,steel plate and parts consumption of steel output were studied,and effects of parts remanufacturing and light weight vehicles developing were also discussed.The medium scenario was chosen for analysis during 2011 to 2050,in which the cars in use were 260 per 1 000 people.Study showed that the ratio of steel in scrapped cars to automotive industry's annual consumption would keep rising and eventually reached 1.2. Re-manufacturing industry has great potential,that the number of re-manufactured parts would be nearly 800 million.If vehicle life spans increase 4 years,the number of scrapped cars would be reduced by nearly one half.The lightening of cars would reduce steel consumption by 18%,and results in the cumulative reduction of over 100 million tons,leading to great resource reduction and bringing about significant economic and environmental benefits.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划课题(2009BAC64B01)
【CateGory Index】: F426.471;F224
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