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Forest fire tendency prediction based on Markove theory

LIU Zu-jun,LIU Jian,YU Kun-yong(College of Forestry,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)  
The forest fire occurrence frequency and intensity were predicted by means of Markov theory.The result indicates that after 2007,the forest fire frequency ranks mainly the A level,namely,the forest fire frequency is below 10,with probability above 57%.When there are some steps of shift,its fixed probability is 0.583,0.166,0.166,and 0.085.The probabilities of the four ranks of forest fire intensity are comparatively approximate.With some steps of shift,its fixed probability is 0.182,0.364,0.272,and 0.182.
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