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《China Public Security(Academy Edition)》 2018-03
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Study on the Evolution of Decision-making Methods for Emergency

GUO Shigang;ZHANG Peng;WU Lizhi;LI Zeng;Graduate Department of Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy;  
Emergency decision-making research is one of the key issues in the field of emergency decision-making. How to make effective emergency decision still remains an important issue that the relevant departments and academia urgently need to solve. The current emergency decision-making models are summarized in the paper, and the existing decisionmaking models can be divided into three stages: empirical intuition method, "prediction-response" model, and "scenarioresponse" model, according to the quality of the accident information acquired. The shortcomings of the traditional decision-making model are summarized, and by summarizing decision-making applications under the background of "big data", a new emergency decision-making model of public opinion under the "big data" background is put forward.
【Fund】: 教育部人文社科基金“面向突发事件的网络流言风险预警及对策研究”(编号:17YJC630214);; 河北省科技计划项目“新媒体环境下突发事件危机信息挖掘与决策关键技术研究”(编号:17455610);; 廊坊软科学研究计划项目“大数据环境下突发事件舆情信息挖掘与决策支持研究”(编号:2017029034)
【CateGory Index】: D63
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