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《Arid Land Geography》 2006-01
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Calculation model of the convergence of three source streams of the Tarim River

LIU Xing1,XIA Jun1,2,ZUO Qi-ting3,YE Ai-zhong1(1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China;2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;3 College of Environment and Water Conservancy,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450002,Henan,China)  
Located in the Tarim Basin,the Tarim River Watershed(34°55′~43°08′N,73°10′~94°05′E) is the largest continental drainage basin in China,flows along the northern marginal zone of the Taklimakan Desert from formation in the mainstream area of the Tarim River,so the mainstream of the Tarim River is completely recharged by its tributaries.Most of the tributaries do not recharge the mainstream anymore due to the climate change and the impacts of human activities,and currently only 4 source streams recharge the mainstream.Based on the characteristics of calculating the runoff volume converged by the rivers in arid areas,in this paper three calculation models are selected,they are the multivariate linear regression model,system model and artificial neural network model respectively,a case study on calculating the runoff volume of the Tarim River,converged by three main source streams,is carried out by developing the models of multi-source convergence calculation,and the ten-day runoff process of the Tarim River is simulated.The results show that the three calculation models are effective and feasible,so they can be used to predict the runoff volume of the Tarim River.The three calculation models are the foundation in calculating the inflow of the Tarim River,converged by the three main source streams,and also can provide the scientific basis for redistributing and scheduling water resources in the Tarim River Watershed.
【Fund】: 高等学校博士点基金项目(20040486038);; 国家自然科学基金项目(50239050);; 河南省杰出青年科学基金(512002500)
【CateGory Index】: P333.9
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