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《Arid Land Geography》 2006-01
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Modified GM(1,1) model for predicting the water resource demand in the Guanzhong Region, Shaanxi Province, China

WANG Ju-cui1,2,CAO Ming-ming3,WU Yan-qing1(1 College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Xi′an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710048,Shaanxi China;2 College of Environmental Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi′an 710054,Shaanxi China;3 College pf Urban and Resources Sciences,Northwest University,Xi’an 710069,Shaanxi China)  
Assessment and prediction of water resources demand are the important issues in water resources planning and management.In this paper,the quota method is used to calculate water resources demand.After analyzing the components of water resources demand in the Guanzhong region,Shaanxi Province,it is considered that the different components of water resources demand in the Guanzhong region belong to the stable time series,and the time series produced from the first-order data accumulation accord with the exponential laws and the Grey prediction conditions for Grey model.In order to improve the Grey model precision,a new method of changing the background data,i.e.,a center approach GM(1,1) model,is presented for analyzing the parameters of water resources demand.By precision test,the average error percentage and the error quadratic sum of the center approach GM(1,1) model are 18.6% and 0.807 respectively,whereas the average error percentage and error quadratic sum of the conventional GM(1,1) model are 33.3% and 2.386 respectively.Therefore,the precision of the center approach GM(1,1) model is higher than that of the conventional GM(1,1) model.The center approach GM(1,1) model was applied to predict the short-term and long-term water resources demands in the Guanzhong region,and the results can satisfy the precision test.The prediction models can satisfy the first-level model in predicting the non-agriculture population,agriculture population,farmland area and total industrial output value,and precision assessment grade is good.The prediction model of animal-breeding quantity is not eligible because the time series data do not fit to the exponential laws.The results show that the proportions of agricultural and industrial water resources demands in the Guanzhong region occupy 92.21% and 89.75% of the total water resources demand in 2005 and 2010 respectively,and those of life water resources demand occupy 7.00% and 9.04% in 2005 and 2010 respectively.In order to improve the utilization rate and the economic efficiency,the agricultural and industrial water resources demands should be reduced by implementing some water-saving measures.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助(批准号:10572090)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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