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《Arid Land Geography》 2011-01
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Change trend and prediction of annual runoff in mainstream area of the Tarim River in recent 50 years

CHEN Zhong-sheng1,CHEN Ya-ning1,XU Chang-chun2(1 Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;2 College of Resources and Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China)  
Based on the hydrologic data in the mainstream area of the Tarim River from 1957 to 2005,the change trend and catastrophe point of annual runoff were examined in this study area.The change trend of annual runoff in the mainstream area of the Tarim River was inspected by using both Mann-Kendall and R / S nonparametric tests,and the catastrophe point of annual runoff was tested by using Mann-Kendall and moving t-test technique.Finally,hydrologic cycle and future runoff change in the mainstream area of the Tarim River were respectively analyzed and predicted by use of variance analysis extrapolation method and superposition trend model.The results show that annual runoff in the mainstream area of the Tarim River has declined significantly in recent 50 years,and the linear declining tendency of annual runoff became more significant and more significant as the study spot approached to the lower reaches of the mainstream area of the Tarim River.With the passage of time,the future tendency will continue to decline,and the downward trend will be more significant.The analysis on catastrophe point shows that the mutation year of the four hydrological stations(Aral,Xinquman,Yenbazar and Karal) is respectively in 1972,1973,1974 and 1972 year,and the catastrophe point of Aral,Xinquman and Yenbazar obeys the law of going from top to bottom.Cycle analysis shows that,in addition to the main performance of Karal station for 14 years,the other three stations display the main cycle of 17 years.The prediction results by the superposition trend model indicated that Aral station would be a wet year in 2012 with 18.23 percent higher than the calendar year's average runoff;Under the conditions of the status quo,Aral station would occur firstly intermittent zero flow in 2091-2107,and Xinquman in 2040-2056,Yenbazar in 2023-2039 and Karal in 2021-2034.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951003);; 中国科学院重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q10-3)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P333.1
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5 YU Ya xun 1, WANG Jin song 1, LI Qing yan 2 (1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China; 2. Lanzhou Center Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China);Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Water Vapor and Its Variation Trend in Atmosphere over Northwest China[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2003-02
6 WANG Shun-de\+1,\ WANG Yan-guo\+1,\ WANG Jing\+1,\ MAO Wei-yi\+2,\ SHEN Yong-ping\+3 (1.Aksu Hydrology and Water Resource Bureau, Aksu Xinjiang 843000, China; 2. Xinjiang Meteorology Bureau, CMA, Urumqi Xinjiang 830002, China; 3. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China);Change of Climate and Hydrology in the Tarim River Basin during Past 40 Years and Their Impact[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2003-03
7 WANG Yan-guo 1 , LI Min-xue 2 , WANG Jing 1 , WANG Jian-wen 3 ,MAO Wei-yi 4 , WANG Shun-de 1 (1. Aksu Hydrology and Water Resource Bureau, Aksu Xinjiang 843000, China; 2. Water Conservancy Bureau of AksuPrefecture, Aksu Xinjiang, 843000, China; 3. Bayingol Hydrology and Water Resource Bureau, Korla Xinjiang841000, China; 4. Xinjiang Meteorology Bureau, CMA, rümqi Xinjiang 830002, China);Hydrological Regimes of Four Source Rivers and Mainstream of Tarim River, Xinjiang in 2001[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2003-04
8 WU Shu-fen, HAN Ping, LI Yan, XUE Yan, ZHU Ye-chao(Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Xinjiang, rümqi Xinjiang 830000, China);Predicted Variation Tendency of the Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Tarim River[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2003-06
9 WANG Shun-de~1, LI Hong-de~1, XU Ze-rui~2, HAN Ping~3, WANG Jin~1 (1. Aksu Hydrology and Water Resource Bureau, Aksu Xinjiang 843000, China; 2. Hydrology and Water ResourceReconnaissance Breau of Bayingol Prefecture, Korla Xinjing 845002, China; 3. Xinjing Hydrology and WaterResource Bureau, rümqi Xinjing 830000, China);Flood Detention Region in the Middle Reaches of Tarim River Mainstream and Its Impact on Ecological Environments[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2003-06
10 YANG Jian-ping, DING Yong-jian, SHEN Yong-ping, LIU Shi-yin, CHEN Ren-sheng(Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China);Climatic Features of Eco-Environment Change in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers in Recent 40 Years[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2004-01
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