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《Arid Land Geography》 2011-01
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Potential effects of climate change in future on the distributions of 7 desert plants in China

WU Jian-guo(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)  
It is crucial to know the effects of climate change on the distribution of species for the conservation of biodiversity under the climate change.Many studies have lacked of using long term climate change scenarious and many climatical variables when analyzing the effects of climate change on the distribution of species,so there are high uncertainness for the effects of climate change on the distribution of species.There are about 30 000 high plants species and 600 desert plants species in China,while the effects of climate change on the distribution of the plants are not clear.To know the effects of climate change on the distribution of desert plants in China,the effects of climate change on the distributions of Stilpnolepis centiflora,Reaumuria soongorica,Ajania fruticulosa,Cancrinia maximoviczii C,Iljinia regelii,Frankenia pulverulenta,Haloxylon persicum in China were analyzed using the CART(classification and regression tree) niche model,long term series climate change scenarios of A2 and B2,and 62 climate variables.The results showed that climate change in China would cause reduction in the current distribution of these plants,and the reduction were low for the Haloxylon persicum and Ajania fruticulosa,and the reduction were higher for the other plants,and climate change would cause an increasing in the new distribution or total distribution region of Frankenia pulverulenta from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2051-2080,then it would reduce.And climate change would not cause change significantly distribution of Cancrinia maximoviczii from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2081-2100,while it would cause reduction distribution of other plants decrease from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2081-2100,and they were higher in A2 scenario than that in B2 Scenario.Under climate change,the minimum or maximum or media of distribution of species would change different.Following climate change,some region of the south of current distribution regions of Haloxylon persicum,Frankenia pulverulenta,Iljinia regelii or Ajania fruticulosa,and some region of the north or east of current distribution regions of Stilpnolepis centiflora,and some region of the north or northwest of current distribution regions of Cancrinia maximoviczii,and some region of the north or northeast or northwest of current distribution regions of Reaumuria soongorica would all reduce,and the new distribution regions would expand towards some region of Qaidam Basin or Kunlun Mountain or Altun Mountain or Qilian Mountain or Pamir Plateau,while the distribution regions of Cancrinia maximoviczii C,Iljinia regelii or Frankenia pulverulenta from periods of 2051-2080 year to periods of 2081-2100 or the new distribution regions of Haloxylon Persicum from periods of 1991-2080 year to periods of 2081-2100 would expand towards some region of northeast of China,and they were higher in A2 scenario than that in B2 Scenario.Additionally,under climate change,changing in current distribution,new distribution or total distribution region of the plants did not consistently change with changing in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China,and changing in current distribution,new distribution or total distribution region of some plants were poor related with changing in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China.And the linear regression relationship between changing in the plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor.The results indicated that climate change in China will cause changing in spatial distribution pattern of these desert plants,and reduce in current distribution region of them,while increase in the new distribution region of the plants.Additionally,the results also indicated that there are high uncertain only using global or regional annual mean temperature to analyze the changing in the plants distribution following climate change.
【Fund】: 国家“十一五”科技支撑专题“西北珍稀濒危生物适应气候变化的关键技术与对策研究”(2007BAC03A02-06);; 中国环境科学研究院公益性院所基金项目支持
【CateGory Index】: Q948
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