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《Arid Land Geography》 2011-01
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Structure,change and its tendency of glacier systems in Altay Mountains

WANG Shu-hong1,XIE Zi-chu1,2,DAI Ya-nan1,LIU Shi-yin2,WANG Xin2,3(1 College of Resources and Environment Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,Hunan,China;2 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;3 Department of Geography,Hunan University of Science & Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan,China)  
There are 1 700 km2 glaciers survived in the glacier system of Altay region which locates in the interface of Kazakhstan,Mongolia,Russia and China,with the area of 880 km2 in Russia and Kazakhstan and 280 km2 in China respectively.The characteristics of Altay glacier system were analyzed on the basis of Chinese and Former Soviet Union glacier inventories data.The glacier system's average area is 0.8 km2 while the median size of Smed(N),Smed(S),Smed(V) are 0.3 km2,2 km2 and 3.4 km2 respectively.The ELA increases both from west to east and from outside mountains to the central mountains with the average elevation of 2 983 m under the effects of precipitation.The maximum area altitude(Hmax(s)) is 3 100 m,and HSR(i.e.the ratio of glacier area near the maximum area altitude(Hmax(S)) against the whole glacier system's area) is about 0.5 which is the medium level among the glacier systems in China.Two phases of glacier data from the newly remote sensing data(TM/ETM) and the glacier inventories data were obtained.When compared the two phases glacier data,the paper found that 208 glaciers have disappeared and 12% glacial area have vanished;however,there evidently exists different shrinking rates between different directions(the north slope in Russia and Kazakhstan is about 7% and the south slope in China is about 31%),possibly for reason of different climate warming rates,during the last 40-50 years.Furthermore,On the basis of the structure of glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state(ELA0),functional model of the variation of glacier system are established,using Kotlyakov-Krenkes's equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature.The models are applied to the study of the response of glacial runoff to climatic change and the effect of both decreasing air temperature due to rising of ELA0 and reduction of glacial area and precipitation rising rate due to climate warming are considered in these models simultaneously.The model results show that,under the climate warming scenario of 0.05 ℃/a,only 3% glaciers in China and 9% in Russia and Kazakhstan will survive at the end of this century.The glacial runoff reaches its climax in 1970-1980s and reduces after,which will undoubtedly impact the ecological systems of Altay Mountains.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40871043 40801025);; 湖南省重点学科建设项目(自然地理)(40652001);; 科技部科技基础性工作专项项目(2006FY110200)
【CateGory Index】: P343.6
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