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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2015-01
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Wetland change forecast in Dunhuang Xihu Nature Reserve based on gray model

DUAN Hao;PAN Shibing;LI Lin;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Institute of Water Resources;  
In order to observe the changing situation of Xihu wetland resources and the trend features in the future in Dunhuang oasis,gray model was used to simulate the wetland evolution and tendency based on the different types of wetland data obtained from remote sensing images. The results are shown as follows:( 1) The wetland in Xihu Nature Reserve decreased by 42. 5% in last 34 years and it will continue shrinking in the following10 years while the sand and gobi area will increase.( 2) The plaque of wetland is progressively diminishing which reflects the fragmentation of wetland changing. Topography also affected the variation of wetland.( 3) The precision of the gray model simulation on wetland evolution is relatively high and it will be a feasible method for wetland research.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41272273)资助
【CateGory Index】: P237;X37
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