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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2016-01
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Analysis of dry and wet temporal-spatial characteristics in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Anhui-Shanghai region during Ming and Qing Dynasties

LI Xiliang;REN Gaisha;ZHANG Lixia;FENG Yang;SUN Yun;Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau;Luquan District Meteorological Bureau;  
We accumulated the rich data of flood and drought disasters through data collection and data analysis from various disciplines. On this basis,modern climate analysis,data mining methods were introduced for analyzing temporal- spatial characteristics of flood and drought disasters. We also applied the least- square method,the moving average method,the cumulative departure method,sliding t- test,and the wavelet analysis method to find the time characteristics of drought and flood disasters,to help people understanding the situation of drought and flood disaster during the Ming and Qing dynasties,and provide the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.( 1) " A compendium of Chinese meteorological records of the last 3,000 years" was put into the attribute database. Making use of " typical dictionary",the drought,flood and normal years records were extracted and the dry and wet grade series were obtained. Years of water logging were significantly more than drought years.( 2) The wet and dry years and the frequency were analyzed with the statistical method,result showed flooding often occurred in 1551- 1600 years,and drought often occurred in 1501- 1550. Using the least squares method to fit the drought and flood disasters,it showed the anomaly of waterlog was negative before the year 1550,after that it was the positive; drought was positive before the year 1700,after that was the negative;using the moving average method and the cumulative departure method to analyze the stage of droughts and floods,it showed the happening of drought and flood disasters could be divided into seven main stages; using the wavelet analysis method to analyze the periodicity of droughts and floods,and it was found that drought and flood disasters had a quasi- periodicity of 2,8- 11,18,30,50,75,100 and 150 years.
【Fund】: 石家庄市科学技术研究与发展计划(131550363A)资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.1
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