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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2016-01
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China's long-term water demand forecast and regional variance analysis

GAO Qisheng;LU Lan;Department of Economics,Qingdao University;  
Based on water resources and macroeconomic data in China between 1997 and 2012,the water resources supply and demand model of China was built for studying. The results showed that long- term demand elasticity of china was close to 2 times of short- demand elasticity. It was proved that water resources problem will be the bottleneck of China's economic and social sustainable development in the future. Moreover,panel data econometric model was established combined with the data in North China,Northeast China,East China,Southern China,the Southwestern and the Northwestern China between 2003 and 2012. We found that environmental Kuznets curve of water followed inverted U- shape in Northeast China,East China,Southern China and the Southwest China through the variance analysis in regional water consumption. And that in North China followed inverted N shape. However,environmental Kuznets curve of water in the Northwest China fitted linear type. Finally,the policy suggestions to ensure the safety of the water resources were put forward.
【Fund】: 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJA630019)资助
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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