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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2017-09
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Evolution trend and prediction of Keriya river oasis niche in recent 11 years

HE Zhenzhen;WANG Hongwei;WEI Min;GUI Yang;ZHAO Zhe;ZHANG Beibei;LIU Zhijun;College of Resources and Environment Science,Xinjiang University;Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Ministry of Education;  
Keriya River Oasis was taken as the research site,the index system was constructed from three aspects of social,economic and natural complex ecosystem,and permutations polygon comprehensive graphic method was applied to evaluate quantitatively the ecological niche of complex ecosystem of Keriya River Oasis from 2003 to 2013. Results showed that in 2003 to 2013,the sort of niches of three subsystems for Keriya was: resource niche economic niche social niche; in 2013 they evolved to: economic niche social niche resource niche. The economic niche was negatively correlated with economic resource niche,and positively correlated with social niche in Keriya Oasis. From 2003 to 2013,the niche change in Keriya revealed the developments of integrated niche,resources,economic and social subsystems niche in recent 11 years. Using the BP neural network model to predict the oasis ecological niche in 2014-2018. Forecasted composite indexes are: 0. 6964,0.7680,0. 8312,0. 8619 and 0. 8765. It showed an upward trend in the future 5a for Keriya River Oasis niche.
【Key Words】: niche entire-array-polygon evaluation model BP neural network Keriya River Oasis
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金联合基金(NSFC-新疆联合基金)重点项目(U1138303)资助
【CateGory Index】: X826
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