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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2018-12
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Dynamic transmission effect of wool price between domestic and foreign wool markets under the open trade background

DING Cunzhen;XIAO Haifeng;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University;  
This research analyzed the dynamic transmission effect of wool price between domestic wool market and the international wool market through the TVP-VAR model based on the monthly price data from January2003 to June 2017. The results show that the domestic wool market had a high degree of integration with the international wool market,and there was a mutual guiding relationship between domestic wool price and foreign wool price. The impulse response between international wool price and domestic wool price had obvious time-varying characteristics,and the response was mainly positive. The influence of international wool price on the domestic wool price fluctuated upward,which could be divided into the low impact stage from 2003 to 2010 and the high impact stage after 2011. The response of international wool prices to domestic wool prices generally showed a trend of " V" which fluctuated decline firstly and then increased. The establishment of the China New Zealand Free Trade Area and the China Australia Free Trade Area had promoted the impact of international wool price on domestic wool price,but the impact of domestic wool price on international wool price had not changed significantly.
【Fund】: 农业部和财政部国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系项目(CARS-39-22)资助
【CateGory Index】: F313.7
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