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《国际感染杂志(电子版)(英文版)》 2012-01
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The Optimal Allocation of Investment between Antivirals and Vaccines for Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Planning

Yi Wang;Yu-yuan Li;Wen Guo;Department of Infectious Diseases,Guangzhou First Municipal People's Hospital,Guangzhou Medical College;  
Objectives To investigate that given a fixed amount of financial resources,what is the optimal combination of vaccine and antiviral stockpiles in terms of minimizing the attack rate.Methods Mathematic modeling was used to simulate the dynamics that with fixed influenza pandemic budget.Different budget conditions were observed if the combination changed.Framework between vaccines and antivirals was introduced by taking into account the uncertainty in vaccine and antiviral efficacy.Results Given a fixed budget,different budget allocations between vaccines and antivirals stockpile gave different attack rates.When the price of vaccine was lower than or similar with the antivirals,the attack rate increased with increasing investment in antiviral.But if the price of the vaccine was higher than the antivirals,the attack rate may not decrease with increasing investment in vaccine.Fixed the vaccine effectiveness,higher effectiveness of antiviral got a lower attack rate.When both antiviral and vaccine were with 50%probability of effectiveness,the attack rate changed by antiviral stockpile with a same pattern as they were with 100%efficacy probability,even it has a higher attack rate.Conclusions Assume the antivirals have 100%probability to be effective,budget was limited to a fix number,then in any event,population should stockpile a small amount of antivirals such that if the post-vaccination reproductive number turns out to be near 1,the additional intervention may further reduce the reproductive number to 1 and prevent the epidemic.Under the fixed budget,the price of the vaccines and antivirals will strongly affect the strategy of the stockpile allocation.When the price of vaccine is comparative lower,more investment of vaccine is better for the pandemic control,but if the vaccine price is too high then more investment in antiviral may be better.We found that attack rates and the optimal budget allocation depend on the probability to be effective of vaccine and antivirals.
【CateGory Index】: R392.1
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1 Ozgur M ARAZ;College of Public Health,University of Nebraska Medical Center,USA;;INTEGRATING COMPLEX SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WITH A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR EVALUATING PUBLIC HEALTH STRATEGIES[J];系统科学与系统工程学报(英文版);2013-03
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