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Empirical Research on Equilibrium, Misalignment and Correction of Imbalanced China-US Trade

HUANG Wan-yang  
Using 1995:1-2010:1 quarterly data,this paper researches on the equilibrium,misalignment and correction of imbalanced China-US trade.The study shows that,in the long run,American economic growth by 1%,Chinese economic growth by 1% and the depreciation of RMB/US real exchange rate by 1% cause China-US trade surplus increase by 4.46%,0.81%,0.93% respectively;reform of RMB’s exchange rate regime in 2005 causes China-US trade surplus increase moderately.There is an error correction organism of misalignment of im-balanced China-US trade,and its function is stronger.In the short run,the appre-ciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate,decrease of Chinese money supply,increase of American government expenditure cause China-US trade surplus in-crease.Misalignment of imbalanced China-US trade is regular.In 2009:1-2010:1,the imbalanced China-US trade is lower than the equilibrium level of imbalanced China-US trade.The implications in policy are: actively reforming the manner of Chinese economic growth;long persisting on the appreciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate moderately;Strategically responding to the pressure on the ap-preciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate from America.
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