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《Journal of Arid Meteorology》 2017-04
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An Optimized BP-MOS Temperature Forecast Method Based on the Fine-mesh Products of ECMWF

XIONG Shiwei;YU Linghua;HU Shanshan;SHEN Anyun;SHEN Yang;JING Yuanshu;Chuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory;Department of Applied Meteorological Science,Nanjing University of Information and Technology;  
Based on the high resolution prediction field data of ECMWF(European centre for medium-range weather forecasts),an optimized BP-MOS model was used to forecast the maximum and minimum temperatures in the next 1-7 days in different seasons,and the results were compared with the forecast effects of ECMWF 2 m temperature products and conventional linear MOS method. The results show that it could effectively improve the accuracy of prediction effect when the process effects of cloud cover,wind and humidity on temperature were considered. The root mean square errors of ECMWF 2 m temperature product in the short term(less than three days) were 2 ℃ below,however the forecast effect for the medium-term was significantly poorer than that of the two MOS methods.The linear MOS model had some unstable phenomena,and the nonlinear mapping relation of BP neural network made it better in fault tolerance. Although there were seasonal differences,the accuracy of the optimized BP-MOS model could meet the needs of the businesses.
【Fund】: 安徽省气象局科技发展基金项目(KM201404)和安徽省气象局预报员专项(KY201605)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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