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《Journal of Arid Meteorology》 2017-04
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Characteristic of Temperature Change in Summer-maize Field and Establishment of Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecasting Model

ZHU Baomei;ZHOU Qing;LU Guowu;YANG Yijian;SI Hua;LIU Sen;Qihe Meteorological Station of Shandong Province;Lingcheng Meteorological Station of Shandong Province;  
According to the climatic data in summer-maize growing season and the corresponding meteorological observation data at Qihe County of Shandong Province from June to September in 2016,the temperature variation characteristics in the summer-maize field under different sky conditions were analyzed. The relationship between the minimum,maximum temperatures and meteorological elements at Qihe observation station was studied using the method of correlation and multiple linear regression analysis,and the minimum and maximum temperatures prediction equations were established. The results are as follows:(1) The temperature in the summer-maize field had obvious diurnal variation,which was most obvious on sunny days and gentlest on cloudy days. Air temperature was lowest during 05: 00-06: 00 and highest at 15: 00. Maximum absolute value of temperature difference between that of summer-maize field and meteorological observation was 2. 1 ℃ and appeared during 14: 00-15: 00.(2) Correlation coefficients between the minimum and maximum temperatures in summer-maize field and all forecast factors varied with the sky conditions. The minimum temperature,the maximum temperature and average temperature of the same day and the day before at meteorological observation station were the main influencing factors. Correlation coefficients were higher between the minimum temperature in summer-maize field and that at observation station on the same day which ranged from 0. 956 to 0. 994,and correlation coefficients between the maximum temperature in summer-maize field and that at observation station on the same day ranged from 0. 825 to 0. 981.(3) Forecast equations were established and they passed the test of significance. Fitting degree of the minimum and maximum temperatures forecast equations was higher. The prediction effect showed that the average relative error of the minimum temperature forecast equation at late jointing and maturity stages on overcast days was 0. 4%,the average absolute error and root mean square error was 0. 1 ℃,respectively.
【Fund】: 山东省气象局气象科研重点项目“德州粮食(小麦)安全智慧气象服务技术研究”(2016sdqxz07);; 德州市气象局科研项目“粮食作物农田小气候变化特征及预报方法的研究”(2017dzqx06)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: S161.2;S513
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