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《Journal of Arid Meteorology》 2017-04
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Application of Periodic and Dynamic Risk Assessment Method on Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment

ZHANG Weiwei;WANG Ying;XU Haoen;YU Bu;Zhejiang Meteorological Service Centre;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory;Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province;  
Dynamic risk evaluation is an improvement of risk assessment method. It is conducive to turn the climate background to weather process,and it is used for dynamic risks pre-warning. Taking rainstorm disasters in Hangzhou as examples,according to severe weather processes,dynamic risk assessment processes were divided into the risk pre-assessment,the real-time risk assessment and the risk assessment based on investigation. The grey correlation model was used to define hazard-forming factors indicators of the rainstorm,then risk assessment model was constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally,the rainstorm process of the typhoon 1509 was analyzed,and evaluation results were presented according to pre-assessment,the real-time risk assessment and the risk assessment based on investigation. Results show that the consistency was up to 76. 0% between the risk assessment result based on investigation and the real-time risk assessment result,but only 49. 0% between the risk assessment result based on investigation and the risk pre-assessment result. It's shown that the real-time assessment could effectively correct disaster assessment for the pre-assessment. With the operational running of the dynamic risk assessment model,the rolling encryption evaluation of the entire disaster process will be realized,thus further reliability of the risk assessment results was improved.
【Fund】: 杭州市财政建设项目——杭州城市气候规划基础研究项目资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.616
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