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External Validation of SOAR Score to Predict Short Term Functional Outcomes after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Chinese Population

JIN Di;CHEN Zhong-yun;LI Jing;LI Shan-shan;XU Zhi-wei;Du Ji-Chen;YANG Xu;Department of Neurology, Aero Space Center Hospital, Peking University;  
Objective:To assess the efficacy of the SOAR score, which was designed to predict short term risk after strokes in Chinese acute ischemic stroke(AIS) patients. Methods: From December 2012 to August 2013, 221 AIS patients who were hospitalized in neurology department at our hospital were studied prospectively. The related baseline data were recorded and calculated by the SOAR score. The bad outcome events were defined as death, poor functional outcome at discharge and 3 months after the index stroke events. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve(AUC), and the calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: The number of patients who had unfavorable outcome at discharge and 3 months were 63(28.5%) and 71(32.1%) respectively. Nine(4.1%) patients were dead at the end of the study. The AUCs of the three outcomes were 0.700, 0.705 and 0.872. The sensitivity was 0.508, 0.529 and 0.889 respectively and the specificity was 0.804, 0.828 and 0.741, respectively. The Cut-off value for three events was 2 points. The x2of Hosmer-Lemeshow was 4.222, 2.785 and 1.045(all P0.05), and Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.978, 0.991 and 0.914(all P0.05) respectively. Conclusion: SOAR score can predict short term functional outcomes in Chinese AIS people precisely and reliably. The higher scores correlate with the greater risk.
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