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External Validation of the iScore, PLAN Score and ASTRAL Score to Predict Functional Outcomes for Acute Ischemic Stroke

JIN Di;CHEN Zhong-yun;LI Jing;LI Shan-shan;XU Zhi-wei;Du Ji-chen;YANG Xu;Department of Neurology,Aero Space Center Hospital,Health Science Centre,Peking University;  
Objective:To validate the significance of iScore, PLAN score and ASTRAL score in predicting the outcome of Chinese patients at 3 month after acute ischemic cerebral stroke(AIS). Methods: From December 2012 to August 2013, 221 AIS patients who hospitalized in neurology department of our hospital were collected prospectively. Related baseline data were recorded and calculated by iScore, PLAN score and ASTRAL score. The outcome events were defined as death and poor functional outcome, or modified Rankin Scale(≥3). Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve(AUC), and calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: Seventy-one cases(32.1%) had 3-month an unfavorable outcome. AUC for iScore, PLAN score and ASTRAL score were 0.816, 0.830 and 0.841 respectively.x2of Hosmer-Lemeshow were 1.676, 5.976 and 12.858(all P0.05), and Pearson correlation coefficient were 0.899, 0.857 and 0.939(all P0.05), respectively. Conclusion: All the three scales can predict 3-month functional outcomes in Chinese stroke patients precisely and reliably. There was a high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable outcome.
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