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《Journal of Lanzhou University of Arts and Science(Natural Science Edition)》 2019-03
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Ecological Security Evaluation and Prediction of Zhangye Oasis

ZHANG Hui;School of Tourism, Lanzhou University of Arts and Science;  
In order to systematically evaluate the ecological security of Zhangye oasis, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of ecological security of Zhangye oasis based on the PSR framework, calculates the ecological security index of Zhangye oasis, judges its current ecological security level and evaluates the oasis' ecological security status. At the same time, considering the natural and socio-economic stresses on the development of Zhangye oasis under the background of climate change and human activities, different scenarios are set up to simulate and predict the changes of ecological security index and the future trend of ecological security of Zhangye oasis. According to the results of evaluation and prediction, the current situation of ecological security in Zhangye oasis is not optimistic. From 1990 to 2016, the ecological security values of the oasis fluctuated and declined. By simulating the ecological security values of the oasis under different scenarios, it is found that if loose control or lack of control were adopted, the ecological security values of Zhangye oasis would drop to 0.2 in the face of climate change or human activities, and the ecological environment would be further fragile, and it would be difficult to cope with the risks brought about by future climate change and social development. The ecological security will further decline, and even develop to a deteriorating state. Only by adopting water-saving technology to improve water security and restore the oasis ecological environment, can sustainable development be realized, the oasis ecological security situation can be improved continuously and effectively in the future, and the oasis healthy, safe and sustainable development can be guaranteed.
【CateGory Index】: X826
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