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《Platean Earthquake Research》 1999-01
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ESEARCH ON COMMENSURABILITY OF MEDIUM-STRONO EARTHQUAKES IN JIANGSU-SOUTH YELLOW SEA REGION AND ITS PREDICTION

Men Kepei(Basic Scienes Department, Nanjlng Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044)Wang Yuanxing(Seismological Office of Ge'ermu in Qinghai Provine,Ge'ermu 816000)  
Based on the theory of information forecasting,the authors think that M≥6 strong earthquakes in the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region possess outstanding characteristics of commensurability since 1846. The structure and its function for forecast are discussed in detail after summing up the prediction of the South Yellow Sea M6.1 earthquake on Nov. 9, 1996.In the meanwhile,the trend of strong earthquake is researched by commensurability modeling. The results show that the next M5 earthquake will probably occur in 1990~2000 and the next M≥6 earthquake will probably occur in 2002.
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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