ACCORDING TO ENTIRETY STABILITY AND LOCAL INSTABILITY OF FOCUS SYSTEM TO RESEARCH MODERATE STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
Qing Baoyan (Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhou,SSB,China)
When environment energized stable complex system and boundary condition haven't larger change, the system, which contain many macroquake focus,is steady state. Evolution course of steady-state present linear rule and fluctuation is stable. The macroscopic state of the system haven't changed with system and arise local abrupt change. Local of area often appear nonliner behavior before sudden change. Every fluctuation of steady state system correspond to sudden of subsystem. According to upper-lower limit of stady state system can predict time and intensity of future earthquake and nonliner behavior can determin place. The think and method were tested through Songpan earthquake with Ms=7.2 in 1976.should be said:when complex focus system and its subsystem are all instabiling state,then determinnacy prediction cannot be tealized.
【CateGory Index】： P315.75