Application of Combined Medium and Long-term Load Forecasting Model on Power System
Jiang Peng Tong Shulin Wan Zhihong (School of Electrical Engineering, South China University of Technology)
A novel combined medium and long-term load forecasting model is presented, which based on three different medium and long-term load forecasting model - gray forecasting model, moving average model and exponential smoothing model. The Variance-Covariance Approach is used to gain each model’s weighting factor. According the power system of Laos, the annual electricity demand is forecasted by the three single and combined forecasting models, respectively. The results showed the forecasting precision of combined forecasting models is better than each of the three single forecasting models, and the relative error of combined forecasting models is lower than each of the three single forecasting models. The combined forecasting model shows considerable applicability and superiority.
【CateGory Index】： TM715