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《Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering》 2007-01
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Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek

Huang Jie~1 Qian Jin~2 Yin Haowen~3(1.College of Urban Railway Transportation,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620;2.Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center,Shanghai 200233;3.Bioassay and Safety Assessment Laboratory,Shanghai Academy of Public Measurement,Shanghai 201203)  
The Suzhou Creek faces the potential risk of eutrophication recently.The pollution effluent with highly-concentrated nitrogen and phosphorus is the main reason.Total phosphorus was selected as the key factor and introduced to the ARIMA model to set up a method on forecasting total phosphorus in the creek.Eighteen years data of total phosphorus,1986~2003,from Wuninglu section was used to get parameters of the model and the ARIMA(11,0,0) model,AR(11) was confirmed as the final model to predict the total phosphorus in the creek.Forecasting result shows that the concentration of total phosphorus will be decreased and have a fluctuation within a narrow range in future,finally fluctuate between 0.4 mg/L and 0.6 mg/L.The value is also above surfacewater standard V.This model can be applied on short time forecast with total phosphorus in Suzhou Creek and improve management system of eutrophication.
【CateGory Index】: X522
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