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《Research of Environmental Sciences》 2006-01
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Watershed Level Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Discharge Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools

CHEN Neng-wang,HONG Hua-sheng,ZHANG Luo-ping(State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,Environmental Science Research Center,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)  
Probabilistic risk assessment(PRA) for the discharge of excess nitrogen was conducted for Jiulong River watershed,an agricultural watershed in Southeast China.Using fault tree analysis,the probability of occurrence for excessive nitrogen discharge to the river during a runoff event was qualitatively evaluated.It was showed that the risk of excess nitrogen discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed.Under the support of GIS,land use,soil type,management practices and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess nitrogen discharge during a runoff event.The results of simulation and assessment of optimal management measurements indicated that alternative practices,such as reducing fertilization,installing vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms,and installing more riparian buffers,have a greater potential of reducing the risk of excess nitrogen discharge during a runoff event and can be implemented in priority in Jiulong River watershed.
【Fund】: 福建省“十五”重大科技攻关计划项目(2002H009)
【CateGory Index】: X820.4
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