Driving Effects Analysis of Water Consumption Changes in the Beijing-TianjinHebei Region Using a Factor Decomposition Model
ZHUANG Li;WANG Hongrui;ZHANG Wenxin;College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University;Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Geography,Beijing Normal University;
With an obvious contradiction between water supply and demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,it is urgent to analyze the relationship between water consumption and socioeconomic development. Beyond the analysis of the temporal and spatial features of water consumption,this paper uses a factor decomposition model to investigate the scale,structural and technological effects of the changes in industrial water consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2003 to 2013. The results show that the total industrial water consumption decreased by 8. 84% during the ten years,which is the main reason for the disconnection between economic growth and water consumption. The increase of industrial water consumption by 26. 795 billion m~3 was due to the scale effect. While the scale effect was the only driving factor that increased industrial water consumption,the structural and technological effects tended to reduce industrial water consumption,by 12. 417 billion and 16. 411 billion m~3 respectively. In the case of Beijing,the technological effect played the main role,contributing 79. 14% to the decrease of industrial water consumption. Whereas in the case of Tianjin,the contribution of structural effect to the decrease in industrial water consumption( 81. 17%) was more effective than the technological effect( 73. 71%). The structural and technological effects in Hebei Province resulted in 51. 37%and 68. 33% decrease,respectively. As compared to Beijing and Tianjin,there is still great potential for water saving in Hebei Province. Industrial restructuring and water-saving technology popularization are effective ways to alleviate water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which means undertaking industrial transfer in Hebei Province should be closely combined with theoptimization of industrial structure and transformation of growth pattern.