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《中国航空学报(英文版)》 2018-01
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Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

Juan LI;Bo JING;Hongde DAI;Xiaoxuan JIAO;Xiaodong LIU;College of Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering,Air Force Engineering University;College of Mathematics and Statistics,Ludong University;Department of Control Engineering,Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University;China Aviation Industry Jincheng Nanjing Electrical and Hydraulic Engineering Research Center;Aviation Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Aviation Mechanical and Electrical System;  
High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance.Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed.Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE) are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations.Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived.Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data.Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.
【Fund】: supported by the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.201428960221)
【CateGory Index】: V228.1;V267
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