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《Henan Science》 2018-08
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An Assessment on Extreme Forecast Index Products by ECMWF of Rainfall Forecast in Hunan

CHEN He;TANG Jie;Hunan Meteorological Observatory;Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation;  
Using the forecasts and observations data from January 2016 to December 2017,the Extreme ForecastIndex(EFI)from ECMWF ensemble prediction system for daily precipitation of Hunan province was analyzed. ETSand BIAS were used to evaluate the threshold of EFI. Results showed that,EFI increased with the precipitation,theETS scores of EFI threshold decreased with increasing of forecast validity and precipitation grades. We found thehighest accuracy of EFI for rainstorm forecasting was in summer with the lowest threshold and the smallest forecastingdeviation,the next was in autumn and the lowest was in spring and winter.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B06);; 湖南省自然科学基金(2017JJ2149)
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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