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《Henan Science》 2018-08
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Development of Logistics Industry Under the Background of Economic Growth in Henan Province Based on the GM(1,1)Grey Prediction Model

WU Mengfei;LI Bingjun;College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University;  
In the article,the data of Henan statistical yearbook from 2013 to 2016 is taken as the original data.The gray correlation analysis shows that the logistics industry is closely related to the regional economic growth,and we find the cargo transportation volume and cargo turnover are the representative factors of the logisticsindustry. The trend of cargo transportation volume better reflects the development of regional economy. Due tothe large modeling error which caused by the original cargo transportation volume data,a second-order weakeningbuffer operator is introduced in the article. The results show that after the introduction of the buffer operator,theaccuracy of GM(1,1)model is obviously improved,and the accuracy requirement is met. At the same time,themodel is used to make a reasonable prediction of the cargo transportation volume of Henan province from 2017 to2019. Finally,combined with the problems of existing in the development of logistics,the corresponding suggestionsare put forward.
【Fund】: 河南省软科学基金项目(172400410015);; 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ022)
【CateGory Index】: F259.27;F127
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