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《Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)》 2019-04
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Employment Effect of Industrial Structure Change in China under the New Normal State of Economy and Trade——The Mystery of Failure of Okun's Law in China

WANG Ke;FU Ping-ting;TIAN Yan;  
In essence,the"new normal"of economic and trade has brought the global economy and trade into a stage of medium-high speed growth featuring high efficiency,low cost and sustainability. By analyzing the correlation between GDP growth rate and urban employment rate in China,it is found that there is a considerable deviation between GDP growth rate and unemployment rate in China and Okun's law. Empirical research reveals the reasons for the failure of Okun's Law in China: First,the impact of the changes in China's three major industrial structures on employment,the employment-driven effect of the service industry is greater than that of the manufacturing industry,and the employment-driven effect of the manufacturing industry is greater than that of agriculture,but the ability of the service industry to absorb employment is shrinking. Second,according to the employment shock effect of economic growth and inflation,both the speed of economic growth and inflation will play a positive role in promoting employment. Third,the employment effect of investment and consumption is compared. At the same time,the employment ability of small and medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises is also compared. It is found that the employment effect of consumption is greater than that of investment,and the employment effect of small and medium-sized enterprises is greater than that of large enterprises.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金一般项目“应对新科技革命和产业革命的外贸发展策略研究”(71741020);; 国家发展和改革委员会发展规划司委托项目“十三五”时期经济结构战略调整的就业效应研究”(SK20130);; 陕西省重点研发计划“中国与其主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易自由化的就业效应研究”(2018SF-353);; 西安市科学技术局项目“陕西自贸区(西安)相关度研究、西安自贸区战略目标功能定位和产业结构问题研究”(2017111SF/RK005-8);; 西安交通大学自贸院项目“陕西(西安)自贸港设想”(sk2018007))
【CateGory Index】: F249.2;F121.3
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