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Long-term Runoff Forecast Based on Support Vector Machine

ZHAO Hong-biao,WU Yi-bin(Longtan Hydropower Development Limited Liability Company,Nanning 530000)  
Forecast model based on the support vector machine is used to forecast long-term runoff of the reservoir,and the SVM runoff forecast model is established.The nature of forecast factors determines the level of forecast accuracy.In order to improve forecast accuracy,the fuzzy optimization method is used to optimize forecast factors.The model is applied to the runoff forecast of Yamadu station in Xinjiang,and is compared with the SVM model that does not optimize forecast factors.The results show that the SVM model which has optimized the forecast factors significantly improves the runoff forecast accuracy and is more applicable.
【Fund】: 科技部重大基础研究前期研究专项自助项目(2004CCA02500)
【CateGory Index】: TV124
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