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Prediction on Shanghai's Energy Consumption Trend and Carbon Emission Pink

Huang Rui Zhe Yongbin Wang Zheng  
This article did some simulation in allusion to Shanghai's carbon emissions before 2050 and discussed research methods of urban carbon emissions trends.In allusion to urban problems,this paper used the Logistic curve to approach urban population growth rate and applied Nonlinear Economic Dynamics to predict Shanghai's economic growth rate before 2050.On this basis,this paper used Zhu Yong Bin,Wang Zheng's(2009) model of optimal growth to predict Shanghai's future energy consumption and carbon emissions before 2050.The results show that under the current rate of technological progress,under the condition of steady progress in industrial structure,the carbon emissions intensity fell steadily,declining at the rate of-0.053.Shanghai's per capita carbon emissions present an inverted "U" growth curve,the peak will be in 2035.Shanghai's energy consumption and carbon emission present inversed "U" growth curve,the peak of carbon emissions in 2037,the peak of energy consumption in 2038.the peak time is a earlier than the national peak under the same conditions,reflecting that the task of reducing Shanghai's carbon dioxide have a long way to go.
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