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《Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research》 2007-01
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Analysis of the Characteristics of Radar Echo of a Local Emergent Severe Convection in Jiangxi Province

GUO Yan (Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330046, China)  
Doppler weather radar data of the local emergent severe convection on 11 April 2004 in the middle of Jiangxi are analyzed, and the results show that though it's hard to predict just using synoptic chart, there are some prediction character in Doppler weather radar data such as: The dive nose of maximum reflectivity (DBZM) and height of maximum reflectivity (HGT) is correlated well with the falling down time of hail and tornado. The change of vertical integrated liquid water (VIL), especially the characteristic of jump, is effective to confirm the growing up of hail, while as concerned of the probability of falling large hail, especially from mini-supercell, VIL density is more predictive than VIL. Hail index (HI) is predictive to severe convection, continuous "PRO" or "POS" signature always mean mature storm, which tend to bring severe convective weather. Three body scatter signature (TBSS) indicate there is large hail. The storm tracking information (STI) is effective in forecasting the storm movement. It performs better in the stable stage than in the shift one, so it must combined with other products to predict the development and movement when publishing warnings. Forecasters should publish severe convection warning once recognized mesocyclone.
【Fund】: 江西省科技厅、江西省气象局多普勒天气雷达预测突发性气象灾害研究项目;; 中国气象局研究型业务专项——短时临近预报预警业务系统
【CateGory Index】: P458.12
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