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《Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research》 2007-03
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On Dynamic Monioring Indicators of Nanjing Drought and Flood in the Past Century

SHEN Liang-fang1,4,MIAO Qi-long1,LU Jun2,GAO Rongbin3,LI Yong4(1.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China; 2.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing 210008,China; 3.Taizhou Meteorological Bureau,Taizhou 225300,China; 4.Taixing Meteorological Bureau,Taizhou 225400,China)  
Using Nanjing monthly rainfall data of 1905—2004,quoting the calculation method of the Palmer drought index,we set up the index M applicable to Nanjing area to reflect the dynamics of drought and flood monitoring.Considering the time factor,the dynamics of drought and flood monitoring index M better reflects the evolution of drought and flood than the Z index.Analyzing M index,we discover that there are more extreme drought month than extreme flood month in the past one hundred years in Nanjing,that the probability of drought and flood in summer and autumn is more than that in spring and winter,and that the drought and flood has continuity,general duration is above two years.The wavelet analysis shows that the M indexes have 9 and 15~20 year oscillation periods in each season;some have 5-year high frequency oscillation periods.
【Fund】: 江苏省科技厅资助项目(编号:BS2005072)
【CateGory Index】: P332.1;P426.616
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