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《Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research》 2014-01
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Application of Winter Atmospheric Circulation Types over Huaihe Valley in Temperature Forecast

Duan Wenyu;Deng Weitao;Zhangjiakou Meteorological Bureau;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;  
Using of Lamb-Jenkinson atmospheric circulation typing method and daily sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR,six circulation indices were calculated to analyze the circulation catalogue over Huaihe valley. And the circulation indices and dominant atmospheric circulation patterns were introduced to construct the winter temperature anomaly prediction model as predictors by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) method and the Stepwise multiple regression method over Huaihe valley. The results show that main circulation catalogues impacting on climate of Huaihe valley are northeasterly type,easterly type,anticyclone type,anticyclone northeasterly type and anticyclone easterly type,respectively. These circulation types present obvious interannual and interdecadal characteristics. According to the results of hindcasts and independence prediction experiments,it indicates that the forecast model presents a certain degree of forecast skill.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41205035);; 淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(编号:HRM201003;HRM201104)
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
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