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《Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research》 2014-01
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Diagnostic Analysis and ECMWF Weather Ensemble Forecast Products Application for a Heavy Fog Process in Jiangxi Province

Xiao An;Zheng Jing;Hong Haoyuan;Pingxiang Meteorologic Bureau;Meteorological Observatory;  
By using the conventional m eteorological data and the ECMWF ensemble prediction products,a fog weather event occurred in northern Jiangxi on 15 November 2013 was analyzed. The diagnostic results show that the fog event was a typical radiation fog. From evening to midnight on 14th,the northern region of Jiangxi province was controlled by cold high-pressure with clear sky. An obvious cooling effect occurred due to cold air and ground radiation. There was an inversion layer at about 981 hPa level with 1-3 m/s wind speed,high surface relative humidity and abundant water vapor which was conducive to the formation of the thick cooling layer. According to analyses of temperature,surface humidity,surface wind speed and the total cloud amount products of ECMWF ensemble forecast,it could be judged that before the fog occurred,the possibility to meet the four necessary conditions for radiation fog formation in northwestern Jiangxi was maximum. With the continuous interpretation of ensemble prediction products,the ensemble prediction for fog and other weather disasters prediction ability can be further improved.
【Fund】: 2012年江西省科技厅科技计划项目(编号:20123BBG70225);; 2013年中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(面上)项目(编号:CMAGJ2013M26)
【CateGory Index】: P458;P456.7
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