Statistical Analysis of the Strong Convective Weather in the Northeast China
Shi Weiheng;Hu Youbin;Lin Xiaoxia;Hao Zhinan;Li Jing;Institute of Meteorology and Oceanology,PLAUST;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology;Huanggang Meteorological Bureau;
Aiming at the problem of strong convection weather nowcasting of Northeast region, firstly, the spatial-temporal distribution of strong convection weather was analyzed by using the routing sounding and surface observation data from 2008 to 2012. The results show that severe convective weather mainly occurred in the north and the south parts, with a dominant center located in the west of Liaoning Province. The severe convective weather mainly occurred during 14 :00-20:00 in the Northeast China. Secondly, taking Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang stations as examples to calculate the stability indexes. By comparing the skill scores of the historical sample test results, the maximum TSS skill score of severe convective weather reached 0.477.Finally, through the 2013 independent sample test report, the results show that there was a good indication of TT, TTModand MK indexes for the strong convection weather in the northeast region. According to the comprehensive analysis of the history and the independent samples, the forecast effect of TT, TTModindexes in Harbin and Shenyang area was relatively good, while the TTMod and MK indexes forecast effect was better in the Changchun area by using 08:00 radiosonde data to calculate the index.