CLIMATIC VARIATION AND RETURN PERIOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN COAST AREAS OF MIDDLE GUANGDONG
ZHENG Yun-Xia;YING Ming;LI Yong-Ping;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration;
Using the observation data from 14 weather stations in the past 59 years(1952—2010) in the coastal regions of the middle Guangdong, South China, tropical cyclones(TCs) and their frequency, scale, source region distribution, and interannual and decadal variability were studied. Meanwhile, strong wind(velocity ≥10.8m/s) and their return periods were analyzed. The results indicate that the affecting TCs in the region occurred mainly from June to September, and particularly in August. Most of the TCs were severe tropical storm or tropical storm and the most of them were generated at the northern South China Sea or the ocean east of the Philippines. During the 59-year period, the frequency of the TCs increased in 1970's and 1980's but decrease in 1960's and 1995 to 2010; in overall, it trended down in frequency and in strength. The extreme wind in return period showed a rapid decrease from coast to inland, and it is slightly larger in western than in eastern part of the study region.