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Specific numerical simulation of heavy rain based on ensemble forecast theory

NIU Zhen-yu~(1,2) ZHANG Li-feng~2(1.No.93437 Navy of PLA,Yixian 074212,China;2.Institute of Meteorology,PLA Univ.of Sci.& Tech.,Nanjing 211101,China)  
A case of heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe valley was studied with MM5-V3.In this numerical simulation,five convective parameterization schemes were adopted.The results show similar presentation of the position of rainbands but for different simulation of meso-β rain cell.To remove the uncertainty in predicting the area and the intensity of heavy rainfall,an ensemble mean was achieved by averaging the five simulated results.The ensemble mean,which has a good simulation of both rain belts and rain cell,is most similar to the observation so far as the amount of precipitation is concerned.This indicates that the ensemble forecasting can remove the physical uncertainty and can be regarded as an efficient approach to enhance prediction.
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