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《Hospital Administration Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army》 2016-01
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Application of X-11 Method for Predicting Outpatient Quantity of Nephrology Department in a Hospital

TIAN Min-li;GUAN Xue;GAO Hong-fu;ZHENG Ge-ping;CHENG Hong;Beidaihe Sanatorium,Beijing Military Region;  
Objective To investigate the application of X- 11 method for predicting outpatient quantity of nephrology department in a hospital. Methods Outpatient quantities of nephrology department were collected quarterly from 2012 to 2014. X- 11 method was used to analyze data by the X11 process of SAS 9. 1. 3 software.By separating the seasonal factor,the authors explored the relationship between the time trend and the trend fitted values,then imitate a regression equation to predict outpatients each quarter in 2015. Results Trend curve existed between the trend fitted value and the time. The forecasting model was Tt= 15 600 +5 000/1 + e4. 94- 0. 82 t. The outpatients of each quarter in 2015 were 20 471,21 636,21 329,18 933. Conclusion X- 11 method could separate the seasonal factors from original series,and help finding the time series trend.
【CateGory Index】: R197.323
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